Last Updated:August 28, 2025, 10:42 IST
Reports suggest new H-1B changes would prioritise high-wage, high-skill hires. A clue lies in a 2021 Trump-era rule that would rank petitions by salary levels favouring top earners
Other tweaks in the H-1B visa programme could include stricter audits, higher filing fees, or limits on outsourcing firms.
Amid the turbulence of global trade disputes, fluctuating oil prices, and shifting commodity markets in Donald Trump’s second term, one issue is drawing unprecedented attention: the H-1B visa programme — a critical gateway for global tech talent powering Silicon Valley’s innovation engine.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s recent rant branding the programme a “scam » that prioritizes foreigners over Americans has reignited a fierce debate. With White House insiders like Stephen Miller, the hard-line immigration architect, pushing for reforms, changes seem inevitable. But what exactly might shift?
For Indian techies, who dominate the programme, the stakes could not be higher. Let us dive into the visa programme, the brewing criticisms, potential tweaks, and the ripple effects on Indian professionals and the transatlantic IT ecosystem.
The H-1B Visa: A Gateway for Skilled Talent
Launched in 1990, the H-1B visa is designed to let US employers hire foreign workers for jobs requiring high-level skills and at least a bachelor’s degree. It is aimed at filling gaps in the American workforce, particularly in tech, engineering, and science fields where domestic talent falls short. Employers must prove they cannot find qualified Americans and agree to pay prevailing wages.
The visa lasts up to six years, after which holders must leave for a year or pursue a green card. There is an annual cap of 65,000 visas, plus 20,000 more for those with US master’s degrees or higher. But the real numbers soar higher—over 386,000 petitions approved in 2023—thanks to exemptions for extensions, non-profits, universities, and research outfits. This flexibility has made H-1B a cornerstone for innovation-driven industries, drawing brains from abroad to power everything from AI start-ups to software giants.
Indians have been the programme’s biggest winners, with more than 70% of approvals since 2015. For many, it is the golden ticket to the American dream: A stepping stone from student visas to green cards, often leading to citizenship.
In 2023 alone, Indians claimed around 72% of slots, far outpacing China’s 12-13%. This dominance stems from India’s STEM powerhouse status, churning out millions of graduates annually—2.55 million in recent counts, dwarfing America’s 820,000.
What Are The Mounting Criticisms Against The Programme?
The programme is not without its detractors, and Trump’s camp has amplified long-simmering gripes. At its core, critics argue H-1B undercuts American workers by flooding the market with cheaper foreign labour. They claim tech firms exploit it to hire mid-level staff at cut-rate salaries, depressing wages and sidelining US citizens. Lutnick’s tirade hit this note hard, pointing out that average green card holders earn $66,000 versus $75,000 for Americans—framing it as cherry-picking “bottom core » talent.
Data backs some of this: In 2023, nearly 70% of Indian H-1B approvals were for under $100,000 annually, below the $104,420 median for US IT pros. Only 5% topped $150,000. Critics see this as evidence of abuse—companies using H-1B to staff routine roles rather than poaching elite innovators. Trump’s “America First » ethos fuels this, echoing his broader anti-immigration stance that blames migrants for wage stagnation and job losses amid economic woes like inflation and housing crises.
Immigration has become a top voter issue, jumping from 2.1% priority in 2012 to 14.6% in 2024 polls. Trump’s rhetoric taps into working-class frustrations, painting H-1B as an extension of low-skilled migration woes—only for white-collar jobs. Proponents counter that it is vital for growth: Without it, the US risks talent shortages in booming fields like AI and semiconductors. Figures like Elon Musk champion it for attracting “excellent engineering talent, » warning reforms could stifle innovation.
For Indian techies, the criticism stings as a double-edged sword. Many arrive via outsourcing firms like Infosys or TCS, filling roles at competitive rates. But this feeds the narrative of “job theft, » ignoring how they drive US competitiveness—contributing to patents, start-ups, and economic output worth billions.
What Will Be The Expected Changes?
While details remain hazy, signals point to a revamp prioritising high-wage, high-skill hires. A clue lies in a 2021 Trump-era rule—shelved under Joe Biden—that would rank petitions by salary levels, favouring top earners. Under this, US Citizenship and Immigration Services would select based on Occupational Employment Statistics wage tiers, starting with the highest (Level IV) and descending. Entry-level (Level I) spots might vanish entirely, with Level II slots slashed to 20-75% depending on the cap.
Such a shift would reshape the H1-B programme: No more low-salary approvals for fresh grads or junior roles. Instead, it would target seasoned pros commanding premiums, aligning with critics’ demands to “hire American » first. Lutnick hinted at this, stressing businesses should focus on US workers unless snagging true elites.
Another floated idea: The “Golden Card » initiative, offering residency to deep-pocketed investors. Trump proposes automatic green cards for those pumping $1 million into job-creating businesses—or $800,000 in rural/distressed areas. Lutnick touted 250,000 applicants, potentially injecting $1.25 trillion. This echoes EB-5 but with a Trump twist: Wealth over skills, favouring entrepreneurs who “buy » their way in.
Other tweaks could include stricter audits, higher filing fees, or limits on outsourcing firms—long accused of gaming the lottery system. The cap might stay, but exemptions could tighten, curbing extensions that balloon approvals.
Impact on Indian Techies: A Squeeze for Starters
For India’s 1.2 million H-1B hopefuls annually, changes spell uncertainty. Wage-based selection would hit hardest at entry-level: Recent grads from IITs or US universities, often starting at $80,000-$100,000, could get shut out. The lottery—already a 10-15% shot—would tilt towards veterans with premium pay, disadvantaging young talent.
Green card backlogs, already epic for Indians (decades-long waits due to per-country caps), might worsen if extensions tighten. Many H-1B holders are “stuck » in limbo, tied to employers—reforms could force departures or risky switches. Positively, high-earners in AI or cloud computing might thrive, snagging spots faster.
Additionally, more Indians might pivot to Canada or Europe, with programmes like Canada’s Global Talent Stream luring STEM pros. Or stay home, boosting India’s booming tech scene—valued at $250 billion, with unicorns like Byju’s and Flipkart.
Ripple Effects On Indian And US IT Sectors
The US IT industry, a $1.8 trillion behemoth employing 12 million, relies on H-1B for 10-15% of its workforce. Stricter rules could spark talent shortages, hiking costs as firms compete for scarcer visas. Innovation might stall: Without Indian coders, projects in machine learning or cybersecurity could lag, per industry warnings. Big Tech like Google (where Indians lead key divisions) might offshore more, ironically hurting US jobs.
For India’s $194 billion IT services export sector—serving US clients via firms like Tata Consultancy— it is a double whammy. H-1B curbs could slash onsite deployments, forcing remote work or local hires. This might dent revenues (US accounts for 60%) but accelerate India’s digital economy, with AI hubs in Bengaluru drawing returnees. Positively, it could spur domestic innovation, as “brain drain » reverses into “brain gain. »
Golden Cards might open doors for wealthy Indian entrepreneurs, funnelling investments into US start-ups while easing green card woes. But for rank-and-file techies, it’s a tougher climb.
Bottomline
As Trump navigates this, the H-1B saga pits globalism against nationalism. Reforms could “Americanize » tech, but at what cost to growth? For Indian techies, it is either to adapt or pivot — upskill for premium roles or explore alternatives.
The US risks dimming its innovation beacon, while India could emerge stronger. With changes likely by late 2025, the programme’s future hangs in the balance, a microcosm of America’s immigration tightrope.
Shilpy Bisht, Deputy News Editor at News18, writes and edits national, world and business stories. She started off as a print journalist, and then transitioned to online, in her 12 years of experience. Her prev…Read More
Shilpy Bisht, Deputy News Editor at News18, writes and edits national, world and business stories. She started off as a print journalist, and then transitioned to online, in her 12 years of experience. Her prev… Read More
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